What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Climate And Weather
OilYes 1.49No 2.78
CoalYes 7.69No 1.10
Climate & weather prediction markets
Temperature thresholds, hurricane counts and energy questions, with captured Yes / No prices.
In focus
01 / 03
All markets 8
·Decimal odds. Check current prices at Zizobet.
8 markets
Will the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?
Climate And Weather
Before 2027Yes 7.14No 1.06
Before 2028Yes 2.27No 1.56
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
Climate And Weather
DollyYes 2.70No 1.56
EdouardYes 4.35No 1.22
How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
Climate And Weather
Above 5Yes 2.27No 1.54
Above 3Yes 1.27No 3.45
How many Central Pacific named storms will there be this year?
Climate And Weather
Above 5Yes 1.23No 2.94
Above 2Yes 1.01No 11.11
How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
Climate And Weather
Above 0Yes 1.01No 7.69
Above 1Yes 1.33No 2.50
How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
Climate And Weather
Above 10Yes 1.14No 1.64
Above 5Yes 1.01No 10.00
How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
Climate And Weather
Above 5Yes 3.33No 1.20
Above 2Yes 1.03No 7.14
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A weather market is only as clear as its measurement
A forecast for a city and a recorded temperature at a named station are not necessarily the same thing. Before comparing a climate prediction market, pin down the place, unit, time window and official observation that decide the outcome.
The board includes a Texas minimum-temperature question, hurricane-count markets and a question about the largest source of global primary energy consumption. These cover very different timescales; a daily weather view does not answer a long-term energy question.
Look inside a market
Saved oddsRead the question and its outcomes
Read every condition in the weather question. A minimum temperature, a number of qualifying days and a multi-day window must be interpreted together.
Match the weather question to the measurement
Swipe to compare all columns
| Type of question | Detail that decides it | Easy mistake |
|---|---|---|
| Temperature threshold | Named station, unit and observation period | Using a city-wide forecast instead of the specified reading |
| Named storms | The basin, season and qualifying definition | Counting a storm from another ocean basin |
| Major hurricanes | The stated intensity classification | Treating every hurricane as a major hurricane |
| Energy consumption | The measure and future reporting year | Confusing primary energy with electricity generation |
Prediction markets for climate change need a precise timescale
Weather describes conditions over a particular period; a longer-term climate question needs its own measurement and baseline. A cold week does not by itself answer a question about a yearly average or a multi-year trend.
Start with the actual condition offered. The global energy example on this board concerns the largest source of primary energy consumption in 2030. That is a specific future ranking, not a general vote on whether climate change is happening.
Similar hurricane titles can settle differently
The Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific questions belong to different geographical scopes. The board also distinguishes named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. Read those words before comparing the Yes price.
Check how the operator treats storms crossing a basin boundary, revised classifications and the end of the season. Those are settlement details to confirm in the full listing; they cannot be inferred from a short market title.
Compare the contract, then the odds
Weather odds are most useful when the underlying definitions match. If two questions use different stations or different observation windows, a difference in price does not mean one is wrong.
Use the reader to inspect the saved outcomes, then check the current Zizobet listing and its named data source. For oil and other energy-price questions, the commodities board is a closer fit.
Questions about climate markets
Can a forecast settle a temperature market?
That depends on the terms, but a forecast and an observation are different records. Check the exact source and measured value required by the market.
Are hurricane-count markets all asking the same thing?
No. Basin, season and storm classification can all differ. Match those details before comparing a count or price.
Can I use the temperature shown in my weather app?
Only if it matches the source, location and observation specified by the market. A forecast, a nearby station and an official daily record can show different values.
Are named storms and hurricanes counted together?
Read the classification in the question. A named-storm total and a hurricane total are different measures, and the geographical basin also matters.
What if a storm’s classification is revised later?
Check the market’s data source and revision cutoff. The terms determine whether an initial classification or a later published record is used.
Check the current weather questions
Confirm the location and measurement rules before reviewing the available odds.