Measles cases in 2026?
Health
Above 8000Yes 9.09No 1.11
Above 10000Yes 14.29No 1.06
Health prediction markets & reported case counts
Reported case-count questions, with captured thresholds and Yes / No prices.
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·Decimal odds. Check current prices at Zizobet.
2 markets
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Health
At Least 2000Yes 1.08No 12.50
At Least 5000Yes 2.44No 1.61
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Health markets: know which reported number settles the question
A yearly case total and an average over several years are different figures. The two saved health-market examples on this board illustrate that difference: one asks about measles cases in 2026, while the other asks about an average during a specified term.
These are market conditions about reported data. They do not assess anyone’s personal health or provide a medical forecast. Compare the definitions before interpreting the prices.
Look inside a market
Saved oddsRead the question and its outcomes
Confirm the geography, case definition, reporting period and published dataset. An annual total and a multi-year average are not interchangeable.
Read the period and threshold together
Swipe to compare all columns
| Saved question | Measure to identify | Rule to confirm |
|---|---|---|
| Measles cases in 2026 | A total for the named year | Geography, qualifying cases and the final dataset |
| Average cases during a term | An average over the specified period | Included years, calculation and publication cutoff |
| Above or at least a threshold | The exact comparison to a number | Whether equality satisfies the condition |
Reported cases are a defined dataset
Check which authority or publication the operator uses and what its count includes. A provisional figure, a later update and a figure for a different geographical area may not be interchangeable.
The captured annual example has several above-threshold outcomes. More than one threshold could be exceeded by the same total. Read those as individual conditions rather than assuming each row describes an exclusive range.
The reporting date can matter after the year ends
A period ending does not necessarily mean all relevant figures are final. Look for the publication cutoff and any rule about later revisions. A news report published first may not be the settlement source.
Use the reader to inspect the retained labels and prices, then open the current operator question for the complete data definition. This board does not reproduce the underlying public-health dataset.
Questions about health-data markets
Does a market percentage describe my chance of becoming ill?
No. It is a conversion of the quoted odds for a specified reported-data outcome. It is not a personal health assessment.
Are annual totals and term averages the same market?
No. They measure different things over different periods. Read the averaging method and included dates in the full rules.
Does an early annual case estimate settle the market?
Only if that is the publication specified in the terms. A provisional estimate may differ from the dataset and cutoff used for settlement.
Can several case-count thresholds all be exceeded?
Yes. Separate above-threshold questions can all be satisfied by one higher total. They are different from mutually exclusive count ranges.
Does this site provide health advice from the market odds?
No. These prices concern specified reported-data outcomes. They should not be used to make personal medical decisions.
Read the complete health-market question
Check the named data source, reporting period and current availability at the operator.